When orderflow and options levels disagree, the conflict is the signal
Most traders get nervous when their indicators disagree. This report treats that disagreement as the edge. When orderflow-based levels say support and options-based levels say resistance at nearby prices, the conflict zone itself becomes one of the highest-information events on the chart.
| Resolution Type | Probability | What It Looks Like |
|---|---|---|
| Snap to options level | ~62% | Mean reversion. Dealer hedging wins. |
| Break in direction of flow | ~38% | Orderflow momentum punches through. |
| Conflict persists 15+ bars | ~18% | Rare but worth watching — big move pending. |
Default assumption is mean reversion. When price enters a conflict zone, set up a snapback trade to the options level. Upgrade to a breakout trade only when orderflow momentum is overwhelming. Either way, the conflict zone itself is where the setup lives. Size accordingly.